Dear all, especially washcost calculator development participants, dear Jeske Verhoeven.
I’m a bit worried about the wash calculator and I would kindly ask to an answer to my post about the washcost infosheet2. When I read about the notice on the upcoming
wash cost calculator I really got nervous because the probable and logic base would be the infosheet information (and more detailed numbers). As I criticized these numbers and the generalizing approach I do have concerns about the possibility of a GOOD calculator tool.
A calculator in an area where there is almost no reliable information available is on one hand a very good activity when it puts together lots of costs and good sepcific data, but on the other hand … exactly as there is no reliable information available it can be very dangerous. Much more as we are talking about a tool which is intended to be used not in just one country.
I think it might be good to do a “testdrive” in one country where there was good information collected. (you might have done that already). This test drive could be published and the decisive parameters could be expressed with a sensitivity analysis. On this basis it could be possible that experts (expert = people who do understand what influence have numbers and they do not use default values for the sensitive parameters) do their testing.
With great interest I read the post by
Bismark
which has attached some papers
the first (of August 2011)
ghana background paper
has a table 2 which says basic service is service for ALL family members.
I consider that definition right. In parallel there is the table 2 in the publication
ghana sanitation
That says again that if “some family members have access” it is enough for basic access! In my opinion it changed from right to wrong for the definition of basic service (see my post about the
infosheet).
So the basis for the calculator is not right.
My main concern about the calculator is the false security of a “tool” in hands of somebody who is validating ... “50 governments, multilaterals, training institutions, International NGOs and donors are either using or planning to use the life-cycle costs approach.”
There are many people who do not understand that specific numbers are better than generalized numbers and they do not understand that a tool is a help and not the ultimate point for decision, They do not understand that a range of 10 between numbers means a very broad area for interpretation. So the typical situation will be:
• You came to a life cycle cost of X for a specific solution and you as well show the costs for an alternative X+Y.
• The use of the calculator “proves” that your numbers are wrong …. as it uses other (general) border criteria and other assumptions and come to the solution that the other solution is better than your solution. So your solution is out, most of the times you will not have the possibility to show the error.
• There will be a hint for the application “specific numbers are always better than generalized default numbers “ – but nobody will follow that out of laziness.
My solution for that would be a tool that obligates the user to put in some work and own thinking to come to a result … a tool that obligates the user to actively put in at least the sensible data by her/himself.
Not to ramble on without any reaction I do stop here and wait for comments.
Thanks
Christoph